How Ohio's special election predicted the future of abortion in the state (2024)

Ohio on Tuesday night became the latest state to protect reproductive rights in its state constitution — joining California, Vermont and Michigan. It is the first and only state underfull Republican legislative control to do so, signifying a growing disconnect between Ohio voters and the state’s Republican leadership, includingGov. Mike DeWine who signed a “heartbeat bill”banning abortion at around six weeks into law in 2019.

This comes months after a special election in August where57% of Ohio voters rejected an initiativethat would’ve raised the threshold to amend the state constitution from a simple majority to 60%. Although the measure was not directly about abortion, it served as aproxy battle for abortion rightsin the state.

Ohio voters’ decision to protect the right to abortion in the state constitutionoverrides a six-week banthat was briefly in effect following the overturn ofRoe v. Wadeand has since been blocked by an injunction. Abortion iscurrently legal through 22 weeks in Ohio.

The same counties where more than 60% of voters opposed changing the constitutional amendment process also strongly voted in favor of protecting abortion in the state’s constitution.

In the general election, proponents of Issue 1 — which establishes a constitutional right to abortion — spent nearly $25 million in advertising, compared to opponents of the measure who spent $16.3 million, according to recent data from AdImpact.

Abortion proved to be abig motivator for Ohiovoters during the off-year special election in August — which otherwise might’ve passed by under the radar. Voters turned out in droves to defeat the measure that would have altered the state’s amendment process.

Top Senate Republicans called for changes to how the party handles divisive issues such as abortion rights ahead of the 2024 midterms after last night’s disappointing results.

He noted that he was troubled by the low voter turnout.

“These were races that Democrats didn’t win – Republicans lost, we didn’t show up, same way we didn’t show up in Georgia in 2020,” Tillis said.

He also pushed for state Republican parties to meet their voters where they are on abortion rights.

“As speaker of the House, I passed several pro-life bills. When I ran forelectionin 2014, my position on pro-life never came up. Why? Because we made damn sure it was consistent with the majority of voters in North Carolina. That's what we need to do across the country,” Tillis said.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune agreed that candidates are going to have to be on “offense” in 2024, saying: “We have to have a compelling message that appeals to suburban voters, no question about that.”

He added, “I think that’s economy, jobs, cost of living, public safety, the border, I think those are the issues that are going to resonate with people across the country. And our candidates this year are going to be on offense on that issue.”

Sen. John Cornyn noted that every candidate is going to have to find a message on abortion that works for their constituency in 2024.

“This is something each individual candidate has to try to figure out for themselves. Every part of the country is a little bit different, so in places like New York or California, they'll continue to be more permissive than in conservative states like mine that’ll be less so,” he said.

“I wouldn’t state a general rule that would apply nationwide,” he added. He also noted that they need, “good candidates who can answer the questions.”

However, Sen. Steve Daines, the chairman of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, argued that theseelections were focused on state’s issues, not national ones, and are not a signal of what’s to come in 2024.

Daines added, “These are state issues they were battling. It’ll be a very different set of issues in ’24 as we look at the United States Senate.”

Republican candidates in 2024 should focus on the economy and steer clear of social issues, after last night’s disappointing results, GOP Sen. Mitt Romney said Wednesday.

“I think we perform best when we talk to people about the cost of living, and the fact that under President Biden, the cost of living has gone way up, their incomes have not gone up with it. When we're talking about people's lives, we win,” the Utah Republican told CNN’s Manu Raju. ��When we're talking about some social issues, they can become highly divisive and we end up not doing as well as we could have.”

Romney acknowledged there is “no doubt” that abortion will still be a key issue next year, noting that they "each can describe our personal views and what we want to do on issues of significance,” but he still emphasized the economy as the focal point of their messaging.

However, Romney doesn’t think that Republicans’ poor showing in this year's elections are a signal of what’s to come in the 2024 presidential election.

“I don't really think that the kinds of election results that we saw last night translate terribly well into President Biden's reelection effort,” he said. “I think President Biden is overwhelmingly going to be judged on the basis of how people feel about their personal economy, about the cost of living, and I think abortion is going to be a big issue in states’ ballot initiatives and so forth, but at the national level, I think it's going to be about the economy.”

Romney added, “I think Trump can absolutely win. I think the polls are showing that if the election were held today, Trump would win.”

Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday tried to blame the defeat of the candidate he backed in the Kentucky governor’s race, Daniel Cameron, on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

“Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn’t alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. I told him early that’s a big burden to overcome. McConnell and Romney are Kryptonite for Republican Candidates,” Trumppostedon Truth Social.

Trump continued, “Tate Reeves, on the other hand, surged to a win for Governor in Mississippi after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate!”

Cameron, the state’s Republican attorney general, lost to incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.

The biggest question inTuesday’s electionswas whether Democrats can maintain their advantages in the nation’s biggest population centers – despite all the headwinds buffeting the party.

Geographic polarization has been one of the most powerful trends in American politics for roughly the past two decades, with Democrats gaining ground in the most populous metropolitan areas almost everywhere, and Republicans growing stronger in the smaller places beyond them. That trend notably accelerated afterDonald Trump emerged as the GOP’s dominant figure in 2016 and has ratcheted up since the Supreme Courtrescinded the constitutional right to abortionlast year.

The GOP’s dominance of exurban, small-town and rural areas helped Trump win the White House in 2016 and has allowed the party to solidify its grip up and down the ballot on interior states with large nonurban populations. But Republicans’ retreat from the well-educated inner suburbs around major cities has been the principal reason for their disappointing results in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections, as well as the anti-abortion movement’s defeat in a series of ballot initiatives since the 2022 Supreme Court decision.

By traditional measures, the political environment for Tuesday’s election again looked favorable for Republicans, with most voters expressing dissatisfaction about both the economy andPresident Joe Biden’s job performance. But all of those conditions were present in the 2022 midterms, when Republicans underperformed anyway, mostly because of continued resistance in the major population centers – especially those well-educated inner suburbs where most voters oppose new restrictions on abortion.

The largest urban and suburban areas likely determined whether Democrats could defy political gravity once again this year in Tuesday’s key elections, fromKentucky and Ohio to Virginia and Pennsylvania. If Democrats run well, it will reinforce the message from the 2022 midterms that they can hold a critical swathe of voters who feel the party has not delivered for theirinterestsby portraying Republicans as a threat to theirrightsandvalues.

ReadBrownstein's full analysis.

States and cities across America held elections on Tuesday in the last major election day until the presidential primaries begin in January.

For all the sound and fury around yesterday's elections, there was one clear signal: Abortion rights are politically popular, no matter where or when they are on the ballot.

And that — no matter how you slice it — is good news for Democrats as the parties plot their strategies ahead of the 2024 elections.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin – the Virginia Republican who believed he could crack one of the most intractable issues in American politics with the promise of “reasonable” abortion restrictions – will not leada GOP-controlled legislaturein the Commonwealth, which denied the party control of the state Senate and put a swift end to both his plan for a 15-week abortion ban and rumors he might pursue a 2024 presidential bid.

Meanwhile, voters in Ohiodecisively saidthey wanted a constitutionally protected right to abortion with the passage of a ballot measure– only a few months after they rejected another measure that would have made it harder for them to shield abortion rights.

And in Kentucky, theDemocratic governor defeatedhis Republican challenger, a state attorney general with close ties to former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, after a campaign in which abortion became a flashpoint.

Here are the key election night takeaways on a strong night for Democrats:

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation? Tuesday night’s election results probably won’tchange the equation for Biden in 2024,given Ohio’s recent presidential electoral history. But how about Sen. Sherrod Brown? The Ohio Democrat faces a difficult reelectionrunnext year, but outcomes from the Buckeye Statemaygive him a boost.

Already a proven political winnerfor Democrats, abortion rights further solidified their place as a driving force in next year’s elections when voters in Ohio, an increasingly conservative state that voted twice for Trump, passed a ballot measure on Tuesday enshrining them in the state constitution. Red, blue and purple states alike have green-lit similar proposals, solidifying a trend that defies partisan expectations and could have an outsized influence on next year’s federal elections. In the end, though, Ohio Republicans might have gotten off easy. Their referendum took place now, during an off-year with no voting for statewide office or president. Otherstate Republican partiesmight not be so lucky.

Glenn Younkin and Virginia hit a wall: The Youngkin 2024 bandwagon ran off the road on Tuesday, when Virginia voters denied the governor and his party the legislative majorities they craved. That means no 15-week abortion ban, which Youngkin backed as a “reasonable” solution that, in his telling, was going to douse the rage of Americans who disagreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade last year. It also likely puts to bed rumors that Youngkin, who has always insisted he had no ambitions to move north of Virginia, will attempt a late entry into the2024GOP presidential primary. The logic there turned on the governor’s ability to craft a coalition that included the far-right, the center-right and the pure centrist swing voter – or something akin to what won him the governor’s mansion in 2021.

Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. But who lost? Andy Beshear won a second term on Tuesday in a state that Trump carried by more than 25 points in 2020. Now the real fight begins. Endorsed by Trump but often described as McConnell’s protégé, Daniel Cameron’s defeat will stir a lot of finger-pointing within the Republican Party. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was directing his at the former president shortly after the polls closed, calling the result “another loss for Trump.”

History-making wins in Rhode Island and Philadelphia Government will look a little more like the governed after Tuesday night’s results are all in. To start, Democrat Gabe Amo is the projected winner of Rhode Island’s special congressional election. He will be the first Black person to represent the state in Congress. And in Philadelphia, former city councilmember Cherelle Parker will become the first woman to lead the City of Brotherly Love.

Read more election takeaways.

Democratswillwin full control of the Virginia legislature,CNN projects, effectively ending Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s hopes of governing with Republican majorities and enacting his conservative agenda.

Virginia Democrats will flip the state House while retaining their majority in the state Senate.

Control of the state legislature was at stake in this year’s election, with Republicans defending their narrow majority in the state House. Youngkin, who has been touted as a potential late entrant into the 2024 Republican presidential race currently dominated by Donald Trump, spent much of the past few months rallying GOP voters toward a hoped-for governing trifecta.

The elections were also seen, for better or for worse, as a referendum on Youngkin’s non-MAGA brand of conservative politics and the state House of delegates and state Senate candidates who subscribe to it.

But with Democrats projectedtocontrol the state legislature,Youngkin may have lost the opportunity to portray himself as the rare GOP leader with some distance from the MAGA brand and a record of winning over some Democrats.

The resultsalso underscore the power of abortion politics after yet another campaign waged with reproductive rights as a central issue broke in Democrats’ favor. Youngkin had vowed that if Republicans won full control of the Virginia legislature, they would pass and he would sign legislation to outlaw abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.

Going into the election, Virginia Democrats held a 22-17 majority in the state Senate, with one vacancy. Republicans controlled the state House 48-46 with six vacancies.

The post has been updated with the results from the House of Delegates races.

CNN’s Ethan Cohen, Molly Gahagen and Melissa Holzberg DePalo contributed reporting to this post.

Republican Gov. Tate Reeves will win a second term as governor of Mississippi, CNN projects, winning a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff.

Reeves will defeat Democrat Brandon Presley, a member of the state Public Service Commission and a second cousin of Elvis Presley, who conceded the race in the deep-red state Tuesday night.

The Republican governor is a longtime fixture in Mississippi politics, serving in statewide office for nearly two decades. He was first elected state treasurer as a 29-year-old in 2003. After two terms as treasurer and another two as state lieutenant governor, he was elected to the state’s top executive office in 2019.

In television ads, Reeves linked PresleytoPresident Joe Bidenon issues such as gender-affirming care and immigrationand attacked his opponent for receiving campaign contributions from out-of-state donors. A closing ad from the Reeves campaign featured formerPresident Donald Trumptouting his endorsem*nt of the governor.

Reeves campaigned on Mississippi’s education improvement, as the so-called “Mississippi miracle” has seen the state rise more than any other on fourth grade reading and math scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress from 2011-2022, according to the state department of education.

Presley sought to make an economic appeal to working-class voters by pledging to cut taxes and expand Medicaid. While Reeves opposes expanding Medicaid, he proposed anearly $700 millionplan to support the state’s struggling hospitals.

Presley also tried to link Reeves to the state’s wide-ranging welfare fraud scandal, which took place when the Republican was lieutenant governor. While Reeves’ name is frequently mentioned in legal proceedings, he has never been officially accused of any wrongdoing and has denied any involvement.

This year’s governor’s race in Mississippi was determined by only the popular vote. Under the old system, candidates needed to win a majority of the popular vote and a majority of state House districts. And if no candidate managed to meet both requirements, the Mississippi House, which Republicans have controlled for more than a decade, would determine the winner.

In 2020, Mississippi voters amended their state constitution to change the way statewide officials, including governors, are elected. Under the new system, a runoff would take place if no one candidate receives a majority of the popular vote.

Voting rights groups had long argued that the old system diluted the Black vote in a state with the highest percentage of Black residents in the nation.

CNN’s Dianne Gallagher contributed reporting to this post.

Kimberly Mata-Rubio, the mother of an Uvalde school shooting victim, will loseher bid to become the Texas city’s next mayor, CNN projects.

Former Uvalde Mayor Cody Smithwill win the special electionto succeed incumbentDon McLaughlin, who is stepping down after nearly 10years leading the city—about 80 miles west of San Antonio—to pursue a Texas state House seat.

Smith will finish out the rest of McLaughlin’s term, and the office will be up for grabs for a fulltermnext year.

Mata-Rubioran on a platform focused on “boosting our economy, protecting our history and culture, and improving city services so they work for you,” according to a September campaign videoposted onX, the platform previously known as Twitter.

Her daughter, Lexi, was among 19 fourth graders and two teachers who were fatally shot inside Robb Elementary School in May 2022.

When announcing her campaignin JulyonX, Mata-Rubio addressed her daughter, vowing she would “honor your life with action.”

Since the mass shooting, officials have given shifting and contradicting narrativesabout the police response to the incident. Mata-Rubio has demanded answers from officials and has been a vocal proponent of tougher gun laws, including calling for a ban on assault rifles.

During a congressional hearing on gun violencelast year, Mata-Rubio remembered her daughter as “intelligent, compassionateand athletic.”

“We don’t want you to think of Lexi as just a number,” she said.